Why did the leaders of Germany and Russia continue World War I at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives long after they had to have known that it was impossible for them to win? Why did George Bush senior really begin the Gulf war in 1990? Why did the United States invade Iraq in 2003? A truly startling theory known as “The Diversionary Theory of War” may hold the answer to these questions. The diversionary theory of war states that leaders may start a conflict in order to divert attention from domestic problems (Geomans 2008).
Strategically speaking, one can see the benefits of starting such conflicts. You as the instigator of the conflict get to pick a conflict with minimal risk and great benefit. Maybe a country with a much weaker military than your own. A country with a culture much different from that of your own country that you can maybe spin as barbaric. Or a country rich in natural resources. As a leader, of a country with domestic problems, such as a struggling economy, a scandal, or a brewing challenge to your leadership. You merely have to find an excuse to start a conflict with such a country and achieve a decisive victory. Once you as a leader successfully select and begin the conflict you may want to go for the packaged deal, getting rid of all challenges to your leadership. This can be done by murdering them and blaming their deaths on the country you are now at war with or by simply sending them to the front lines and hoping your new enemy really takes care of them for you.
The key to a successful diversionary war, as George W. Bush may have belatedly found out (his approval ratings were among the highest any president has ever achieved when he invaded Afghanistan after September 11th, and they continued to drop as he orchestrated the war in Iraq then sighed the $700 billion dollar economic bailout plan in 2008) seems to be to make your viewpoint seem righteous, make sure your country benefits from the war, and have a quick, decisive victory that shows everybody your prowess as a leader.
Goemans, Hein, 2008. “Which Way Out? The Manner and Consequences of Losing Office,”
Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (6): 771-794.
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